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 群智研究|2021年10月大尺寸(TV/PC)面板价格风向标
 
发布日期:2021/11/1
 


TV面板:

进入四季度,全球LCD TV面板市场供需环境呈现整体宽松,尺寸间表现分化的特点:大尺寸供需持续宽松,小尺寸供需逐渐趋于平衡。需求端,欧美等发达经济体电视需求明显回落;但以印度为主要代表的新兴国家因促销旺季备货的补充性需求集中释放,小尺寸备货需求强劲。供应端,面板厂持续调整产能以减少供应,大尺寸供应稳定增加,小尺寸的供应则相应减少。

TV panel:

Entering 21Q4, the overall supply and demand environment of the global LCD TV panel market is loose, and the performance of each size is differentiated: the supply and demand of large sizes continue to be loose, while the small sizes gradually tend to be balanced. On the demand side, TV demand in developed economies such as Europe and the United States has dropped significantly. However, in emerging countries, mainly represented by India, the supplementary stocking demand were released centrally during the peak promotion season, and stocking demand for small-size has been strong. On the supply side, panel makers continue to adjust their capacity to reduce supply. The supply of large sizes has steadily increased, while the supply of small sizes has decreased accordingly.

根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)“供需模型”测算,四季度全球LCD TV面板整体供需比为8.9%(面积基准),整体供需宽松,面板价格维持下降趋势,其中小尺寸价格降幅明显收窄,中大尺寸LCD TV面板价格依然维持较大降幅。各尺寸表现如下:

According to Sigmaintell's "supply and demand model" calculations, the supply-demand ratio of global LCD TV panels in 21Q4 is 8.9% (area basis), overall supply and demand are loose, and panel prices maintain a downward trend. Among them, the price decline of small-size has narrowed significantly, and the price of medium and large-size panels still maintains a large decline. The performance of each size is as follows:

1. 32",印度市场促销旺季影响需求短期迅速回温,10月价格降幅预计收窄至7美金,11月降幅将收窄至5美金以内。

2. 39.5"~43",供需由宽松趋于平衡,10月价格预计下降7美金,11月价格降幅预计收窄至5美金。

3. 50",需求受55”挤压,10月价格预计下降超20美金,11月预计维持10美金以上的较大降幅。

4. 55",供需持续宽松,10月均价预计下降20美金,11月降幅预计收窄至10美金。

5. 大尺寸方面,供应过剩,预计10~11月价格维持约20美金的较大降幅。

1. 32", the peak sales season in the Indian market has affected demand and recover quickly in the short term. It is expected that the price decline will narrow to US$7 in October, and the decline will be narrowed to less than US$5 in November.

2. 39.5"~43", supply and demand tend to balance from loose. It is expected that the price will fall by US$7 in October, and the price decline will be narrowed to US$5 in November.

3. At 50", demand is squeezed by 55". It is expected that the price will drop by more than US$20 in October, and it will maintain a large decline of more than US$10 in November.

4. 55", supply and demand continue to be loose, it is expected that the average price in October will drop by US$20, and the decline will narrow to US$10 in November.

5. In terms of large size, there is an oversupply. It is expected that the price will maintain a relatively large drop of approximately US$20 from October to November.

Monitor面板:

由于需求转弱以及塞港问题影响,显示器品牌端三季度市场出货不达预期,进入四季度消费需求仍旧低迷,而商用需求持稳。受到TV面板价格下行压力和产能投片持续增长的影响,群智咨询(Sigmaintell)预测,10月份显示器面板价格全面下降,整体看来,由于消费市场和商用市场的不平衡表现,预计VA产品价格降幅大于IPS产品。各尺寸表现如下:

Monitor panel:

Affected by weaker demand and the port congestion problem, the third-quarter market shipments of monitor brands did not meet expectations. Entering 21Q4, consumer demand remains sluggish, while commercial demand remains stable. Affected by the downward pressure on TV panel prices and the continuous capacity growth, Sigmaintell predicts that the price of monitor panels will fall in October. Overall, due to the imbalanced performance of the consumer market and the commercial market, it is expected that the price decline of VA products will be greater than that of IPS products. The performance of each size is as follows:

1. 21.5"FHD TN,10月模组价格下跌0.6美金,随着21.5"VA供应持续增加,预计11月份价格降幅扩大到1美金以上。

2. 23.8"FHD,10月IPS模组产品价格下降1.2美金,预计11月下降1.8美金,OC产品(VA&IPS)10月价格降幅扩大到2.8美金,预计11月价格下降3.2美金。

3. 27"FHD,10月模组价格下降1.5美金,预计11月份价格下降2美金。

1. For 21.5" FHD TN, the price of modules in October has dropped by US$0.6. As the supply of 21.5" VA continues to increase, it is expected that the price drop in November will expand to more than US$1.

2. For 23.8" FHD, the price of IPS module products has dropped by US$1.2 in October, and it is expected to drop by US$1.8 in November. The price decline of OC products (VA&IPS) in October has expanded to US$2.8, and it is expected that the price will drop by US$3.2 in November.

3. For 27"FHD, the module price in October has dropped by US$1.5, and it is expected to drop by US$2 in November.

Notebook 面板:

进入四季度,全球笔记本市场呈现明显分化态势。以Chromebook为主的HD TN低端市场需求环比大幅下降。相反地,受到海外线下办公的恢复和GPU短缺的影响,商用和高刷的需求仍呈增长态势。供应方面,随着DDIC供应缓解,面板中高端供应能力逐步得到释放,而下游品牌的长短料问题凸显,将抑制FHD及FHD+面板价格的上涨态势。

群智咨询(Sigmaintell)预测,10月份HD&TN产品价格全面下降,降幅扩大。主流IPS产品价格涨幅明显收窄。

Notebook panel:

Entering 21Q4, the global notebook market has shown a distinct trend of differentiation. The demand for the low-end HD TN market, which is dominated by Chromebooks, dropped sharply from the previous month. On the contrary, affected by the recovery of overseas offline offices and the shortage of GPUs, the demand for commercial and high-frequency products is still on the rise. On the supply side, as the supply of DDIC eases, the mid-to-high-end panel supply capacity is gradually released, and the long and short material problems of downstream brands have become prominent, which will restrain the upward trend of FHD and FHD+ panel prices.

Sigmaintell predicts that the price of HD&TN products drop across the board in October, and the decline will expand. The price increase of mainstream IPS products will narrow significantly.

1. 低端TN产品,11.6英寸产品10月下降约1美金,预计11月下降1.5美金左右。13.3&14英寸产品预计10~11月下降0.5~1美金。

2. 主流IPS产品,涨幅持续收窄,10月份上涨0.2~0.4美金,11月份预计上涨0.1~0.2美金。

3. 高分&高刷产品价格,主流规格10月~11月仍维持小幅上涨。

1. Low-end TN products, 11.6-inch products drop by about US$1 in October, and it is expected to drop by US$1.5 in November. 13.3&14 inch products are expected to drop by US$0.5 to US$1 from October to November.

2. The growth rate of mainstream IPS products continues to narrow, with an increase of US$0.2~US$0.4 in October, and an expected increase of US$0.1~US$0.2 in November.

3. The price of high-scoring & high-brush products, mainstream specifications still maintain a slight increase from October to November.


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